Our 2026 Oscar Nominee Predictions
by Emma Batterman
The annual awards season is in full swing with both the Critics Choice Awards and The Golden Globes now behind us. Only a few major award ceremonies remain, including the Actor Awards (previously the SAG Awards), the BAFTAs, and the Academy Awards. Also known as The Oscars, the Academy Awards are celebrating their 98th year as the most distinguished and influential film awards in the world. With the shortlist released in December and the ceremony set for March 15th, the Academy has already begun voting for this year’s contenders. The nominations for all 24 categories are to be announced during a live broadcast this Thursday, January 22.
While last year’s awards season was generally considered lackluster despite gems like Conclave (2024) and Dune: Part Two (2024) lurking underneath, this year’s Oscar competition is packed with memorable contenders beloved by both audiences and critics alike. From the tear-jerking prestige drama of Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet to the biting, hair-raising dark comedy of Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, it’s clear the films up for consideration span an unusually wide genre compared to years past. While Coralie Fargeat certainly helped pave the way with The Substance last year, Ryan Coogler in particular seems to have shattered the industry bias against horror with Sinners, both a box-office hit and a critical success. Coogler and Anderson currently lead the race as they fight for the top spot on countless critical top 10 lists, though One Battle After Another seems prime to take home the top prize. Other shoe-ins for Best Picture at this year’s Oscars include Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme, Kleber Mendonça Filho’s The Secret Agent, and Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, all of which won big at last week’s Golden Globes.
For the most part, the Academy tends to vote in line with other major awards when it comes to nominations. Nevertheless, the Oscars love to pitch a curveball in the form of an unexpected acting nomination. Jonah Hill in The Wolf of Wall Street (2013), Marina De Tavira in Roma (2018), and Tommy Lee Jones in In the Valley of Elah (2007) all received recognition at the awards despite skirting acknowledgement from the BAFTAs, Golden Globes, SAG, and Critics Choice. While many performances are all but guaranteed to grace the Academy’s favor, underdogs such as Wunmi Mosaku’s mesmerising performance in Sinners, William H. Macy’s brief yet impactful appearance in Train Dreams, or even Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson’s career-defying role in The Smashing Machine may all elude expectations and clinch a nomination. Eva Victor in Sorry, Baby or Amanda Seyfried in The Testament of Ann Lee may also bump Oscar darling Emma Stone in Bugonia out of the running for Best Actress, a potential shock in arguably the fiercest category of the night.
These prognoses for the 98th Academy Awards are certainly not a guarantee, but by analyzing other major awards and keeping up with the ceremony’s history, it’s not too difficult to imagine what this year has in store for us. As the most coveted nominations in cinema approach, we’re giving that forecast a shot as we pick through this year’s wealth of outstanding films. In our consideration, we included the likely leaders of each category followed by major contenders that stand a good chance as potential runner-ups. Armed with the shortlist for only half the categories and sorted in order of the likely winner, here are our predictions for the 2026 feature length Oscar nominees.
Best Picture
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
It Was Just an Accident
Sentimental Value
No Other Choice
Train Dreams
Frankenstein
Major Contenders:
Bugonia
Blue Moon
Jay Kelly
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson for One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler for Sinners
Chloé Zhao for Hamnet
Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident
Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value
Major Contenders:
Guillermo del Toro for Frankenstein
Park Chan-wook for No Other Choice
Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Best Actress
Rose Byrne for If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Jessie Buckley for Hamnet
Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value
Chase Infiniti for One Battle After Another
Emma Stone for Bugonia
Major Contenders:
Eva Victor for Sorry, Baby
Amanda Seyfried for The Testament of Ann Lee
Jennifer Lawrence for Die My Love
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet for Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio for One Battle After Another
Wagner Moura for The Secret Agent
Joel Edgerton for Train Dreams
Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon
Major Contenders:
Michael B. Jordan for Sinners
Oscar Isaac for Frankenstein
Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson for The Smashing Machine
Best Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value
Amy Madigan for Weapons
Elle Fanning for Sentimental Value
Odessa A’zion for Marty Supreme
Major Contenders:
Emily Blunt for The Smashing Machine
Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners
Regina Hall for One Battle After Another
Best Supporting Actor
Stellan Skarsgård for Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein
Sean Penn for One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal for Hamnet
Benicio del Toro for One Battle After Another
Major Contenders:
Miles Caton for Sinners
Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly
William H. Macy for Train Dreams
Best Original Screenplay
It Was Just an Accident by Jafar Panahi
Sinners by Ryan Coogler
Sentimental Value by Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt
The Secret Agent by Kleber Mendonça Filho
Sorry, Baby by Eva Victor
Major Contenders:
Jay Kelly by Noah Baumbach and Emily Mortimer
Marty Supreme by Ronald Bronstein & Josh Safdie
If I Had Legs I’d Kick You by Mary Bronstein
Best Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet by Chloé Zhao
One Battle After Another by Paul Thomas Anderson
Train Dreams by Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar
Frankenstein by Guillermo del Toro
No Other Choice by Park Chan-wook, Lee Ja-hye, Lee Kyoung-mi and Don McKellar
Major Contenders:
Wake Up Dead Man by Rian Johnson
Hedda by Nia DaCosta
Bugonia by Will Tracy
Best Animated Feature
KPop Demon Hunters
Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
Zootopia 2
Arco
Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba Infinity Castle
Major Contenders:
Ne Zha 2
Elio
Chainsaw Man – The Movie: Reze Arc
Best International Feature
The Secret Agent (Brazil)
Sentimental Value (Norway)
No Other Choice (South Korea)
It Was Just an Accident (France)
The Voice of Hind Rajab (Tunisia)
Major Contenders:
Sirāt (Spain)
The Sound of Falling (Germany)
Palestine 36 (Palestine)
Best Documentary Feature
The Perfect Neighbor
2000 Meters to Andriivka
The Alabama Solution
Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Come See Me in the Good Light
Major Contenders:
Seeds
Holding Liat
Apocalypse in the Tropics
Best Cinematography
Dan Laustsen for Frankenstein
Łukasz Żal for Hamnet
Michael Bauman for One Battle After Another
Adolpho Veloso for Train Dreams
Kim Woo-Hyung for No Other Choice
Major Contenders:
Autumn Durald Arkapaw for Sinners
Darius Khondji for Marty Supreme
Fabian Gamper for The Sound of Falling
Best Film Editing
Ronald Bronstein and Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme
Andy Jurgensen for One Battle After Another
Stephen Mirrione for F1
Affonso Gonçalves and Chloé Zhao for Hamnet
Michael P. Shawver for Sinners
Major Contenders:
Kim Ho-bin and Kim Sang-beom for No Other Choice
Parker Laramie for Train Dreams
Evan Schiff for Frankenstein
Best Costume Design
Kate Hawley for Frankenstein
Paul Tazewell for Wicked: For Good
Małgorzata Karpiuk The Testament of Ann Lee
Ruth E. Carter for Sinners
Malgosia Turzanska for Hamnet
Major Contenders:
Lindsay Pugh for Hedda
Miyako Bellizi for Marty Supreme
Alexandra Byrne for The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
The Smashing Machine
Marty Supreme
Major Contenders:
One Battle After Another
The Ugly Stepsister
Nuremberg
Best Production Design
Tamara Deverell and Shane Vieau for Frankenstein
Fiona Crombie and Alice Felton for Hamnet
Hannah Beachler and Monique Champagne for Sinners
Jørgen Stangebye Larsen for Sentimental Value
Nathan Crowley and Lee Sandales for Wicked: For Good
Major Contenders:
Jack Fisk for Marty Supreme
Sam Bader for The Testament of Ann Lee
Kasra Farahani for The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
Sinners
F1
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Major Contenders:
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Frankenstein
Sinners
F1
Tron: Ares
Major Contenders:
Superman
Wicked: For Good
Jurassic World Rebirth
Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson for Sinners
Max Richter for Hamnet
Jerskin Fendrix for Bugonia
Johnny Greenwood for One Battle After Another
Kangding Ray for Sirāt
Major Contenders:
Bryce Dessner for Train Dreams
Hans Zimmer for F1
Daniel Blumberg for The Testament of Ann Lee
Best Original Song
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
“I Lied To You” from Sinners
“No Place Like Home” from Wicked: For Good
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
“Drive” from F1
Major Contenders:
“The Girl in the Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Dream as One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Last Time (I Seen the Sun)” from Sinners
Best Casting
Marty Supreme
One Battler After Another
Sinners
The Secret Agent
Major Contenders:
Hamnet
Weapons
Sentimental Value